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The coming summer is 'odds on for a barbecue
summer', according to long-range forecasts.
Summer temperatures across Europe are likely to
be warmer than average and rainfall near or below average for
the three months of summer, although all Rota, Lanciano and
Hildburghausen could escape from the worst effects of it.
That forecast contrast with the cold weather we
have suffered in 2008. Global temperature for 2008 was 0.37 °C,
wich was above the long-term (1961-1990) average of 14.0 °C,
but it mark 2008 as the coolest year since 2000, when the value
was 0.24 °C.
The fact that 2008 has been cooler than
any of the last seven years does not mean that global
warming has gone away. What matters is the underlying rate
of warming - the period 2001-2007 with an average of 0.44 °C
above the 1961-90 average was 0.21 °C warmer than corresponding
values for the period 1991-2000
Interannual variations of global surface
temperature are strongly affected by the warming influences of
El Niņo events and the cooling influences of La Niņa
events. The year 2007, with a provisionally assessed temperature
of 0.41 °C (above long-term average), was colder than forecast.
This was due to a much quicker than expected decline of a
moderate El Niņo that warms the climate, followed by the
development of the strong cooling influence of
La Niņa.
The last La Niņa event has been the strongest since
1999-2000. The lag between La Niņa and the full
global surface temperature response means that the cooling
effect of La Niņa is expected to fade away this year, with the
raise of the summer temperatures as a consequence.
Will see...
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